[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"cms-page:\u002Fblog\u002Fthe-future-of-marketing-mix-modeling-is-bayesian-heres-why":3},{"date":4,"date_gmt":4,"content":5,"sticky":7,"format":8,"categories":9,"collections":11,"coauthors":12,"class_list":14,"acf":23,"head_links":368,"breadcrumbs":369,"reading_minutes":183,"category":377,"head":379},"2026-03-18T15:19:35",{"rendered":6},"\n\u003Cp>For decades, the Frequentist approach to Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) was the industry standard. But as marketing journey became more complex and fragmented, it started to show its cracks. Here’s why a Bayesian approach to Marketing Mix Modeling has emerged as the stronger approach.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>At a high level, Frequentist statistics treats probability as purely data-driven. No assumptions, no prior knowledge, just the data. It outputs point estimates, quantified using confidence intervals. Bayesian statistics, on the other hand, treats probability as a belief that gets updated as new data arrives. \u003Cbr>At Impression, we consider many factors before choosing the best approach for all client needs, but Bayesian is almost always our approach of choice. Let me explain why.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"frequentist-methodology-rigid-straightforward-confined\">Frequentist methodology: Rigid, straightforward, confined\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The core limitation of the traditional Frequentist approach to MMM is its rigidity. Coefficients are treated as static, unknown values. The model’s understanding is strictly confined to the data it is specifically provided with.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>For a marketer, this creates some familiar headaches. If you scale media spend across multiple channels at the same time, the model gets confused. We call this \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ibm.com\u002Fthink\u002Ftopics\u002Fmulticollinearity\">multicollinearity\u003C\u002Fa>. The model ends up assigning contribution to the wrong channel because it can’t determine which channel drove the increase in revenue.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>And if you’ve just run an incrementality test proving your channel delivers a ROAS of 3? The model doesn’t care. It starts fresh every time, with no memory of what you already know.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Despite its issues, the Frequentist approach still has its uses. If you are looking for a straightforward analysis and have a large, clean dataset, it could be all you need. It requires much less setup and tuning to get to your results.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"bayesian-methodology-flexibility-probability-continuous\">Bayesian methodology: Flexibility, probability, continuous\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The Bayesian approach treats model parameters as probability distributions rather than fixed values. Rather than a single answer, the model holds a range of possibilities, with some possibilities more probable than others. These distributions are called priors. We aim for priors to be weakly informative, meaning they nudge the model towards a reasonable starting point, while staying flexible enough to move where the data tells it to.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>When the model runs, it constantly updates the prior using the data it is given. The result is an updated probability distribution, called the posterior. The better defined the prior, the more accurate the estimate of the parameter. The data still influences the outcome either way, but a good prior gives it less room to produce an implausible result. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>A well-defined prior is one thing, but incorporating external evidence is where Bayesian modelling really comes into its own.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"calibration-considerations-for-bayesian\">Calibration considerations for Bayesian\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>When you conduct an \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fblog\u002Fguide-to-media-effectiveness-measurement\u002F\">incrementality test\u003C\u002Fa>, you are learning something concrete about a specific channel. So, why wouldn’t your model learn from it too?\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>That’s exactly what calibration allows. Instead of your Marketing Mix Model and your experiments sitting in separate reports that occasionally contradict each other, the test results feed directly into the prior, and the model updates accordingly. It fills in the gaps for all the weeks you weren’t running a test.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The result is a model that gets smarter over time. Every test you run, every result you feed in, makes the next iteration more informed. That’s something a Frequentist model simply cannot do.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"limiting-uncertainty-with-bayesian\">Limiting uncertainty with Bayesian\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Frequentist models give you a single number. Bayesian models don’t just give you an estimate; they tell you how much to trust that estimate.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Take two channels sitting on your media plan:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-table\">\u003Ctable class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\u003Cthead>\u003Ctr>\u003Cth>\u003C\u002Fth>\u003Cth>\u003Cstrong>Average ROAS\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fth>\u003Cth>\u003Cstrong>Credible Interval\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fth>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003C\u002Fthead>\u003Ctbody>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cstrong>Channel A\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>3.0\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>1.0 – 5.0\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003Ctr>\u003Ctd>\u003Cstrong>Channel B\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>2.8\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003Ctd>2.7 – 2.9\u003C\u002Ftd>\u003C\u002Ftr>\u003C\u002Ftbody>\u003C\u002Ftable>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Channel A \u003C\u002Fstrong>looks better on paper. But \u003Cstrong>Channel B\u003C\u002Fstrong> is the safer investment. Its credible interval is tighter. You know roughly what you’re going to get. Channel A’s range is far wider, meaning the model is far less certain. It might be a ROAS of 5. It also might be burning money. Which channel would you choose?\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>As the world of \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fblog\u002Fgoogle-consent-mode\u002F\">online privacy grows\u003C\u002Fa>, attribution measurement becomes increasingly unreliable. This is why \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fmeasurement\u002F\">Marketing Mix Modeling\u003C\u002Fa> is emerging as the primary methodology to measure your marketing efforts. At Impression, we specialise in building robust, bespoke MMMs, tailored to each client. If you’d like to explore what that could look like for your business, \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fus\u002Fget-in-touch\u002F\">get in touch\u003C\u002Fa>.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\u003Cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003Cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fus\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002F\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3840\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2024\u002F03\u002FMeasurement_Banner_01.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27690\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",false,"standard",[10],41,[],[13],120,[15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22],"post-37628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-measurement",{"page_content_modules":24,"hero":179},[25,133],{"acf_fc_layout":26,"reduced":27,"top_overlap":-1,"bottom_underlap":-1,"disable_observer":27,"title":28,"content":6,"authors":29},"blog_post_content",true,"The future of Marketing Mix Modeling is Bayesian: Here’s why",[30],{"id":31,"path":32,"display_name":33,"job_title":34,"description":35,"avatar_url":36,"acf":37},29,"\u002Fabout\u002Four-team\u002Fharry-brace\u002F","Harry Brace","Director, Head of Solutions","I'm the Director, Head of Solutions at Impression. I spend my time debugging and implementing tracking using Google Tag Manager, managing data warehousing platforms and building Looker Studio reports!","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"full_bio":38,"job_title":34,"specialist_service_links":39,"photo":77},"\u003Cp>Director, Head of Solutions. Joined Impression in November 2017.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>I gained 4 years of experience as a web developer before moving to Impression as a digital account manager in 2017. I moved across to the Analytics department in 2019 and I’ve been strengthening and growing our Analytics offering ever since.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Day to day, I spend my time debugging and implementing tracking using Google Tag Manager, managing data warehousing platforms and building Looker Studio reports!\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Something that I’m proud of:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\nBuilding the analytics department over the last couple of years with the help of Aaron and now Alex H.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Outside of work:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\nFind me socialising, skiing or gaming.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[40,58,68],{"page":41,"link_text":57},{"ID":42,"post_author":43,"post_date":44,"post_date_gmt":44,"post_content":45,"post_title":46,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":49,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":50,"post_modified_gmt":50,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":51,"guid":52,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":56},374,"98","2021-01-11 16:25:32","","Analytics","publish","closed","analytics","2026-09-28 11:36:16",0,"\u002F?page_id=374","page","0","raw","\u002Fanalytics\u002F","Web Analytics",{"page":59,"link_text":62},{"ID":60,"post_author":43,"post_date":61,"post_date_gmt":61,"post_content":45,"post_title":62,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":63,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":64,"post_modified_gmt":64,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":65,"guid":66,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":67},17916,"2022-06-20 08:56:55","Tag Management","tag-management","2026-09-28 11:05:27",17552,"\u002F?page_id=17916","\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Ftag-management\u002F",{"page":69,"link_text":72},{"ID":70,"post_author":43,"post_date":71,"post_date_gmt":71,"post_content":45,"post_title":72,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":73,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":74,"post_modified_gmt":74,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":65,"guid":75,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":76},17140,"2022-05-27 14:22:19","Google Marketing Platform","google-marketing-platform","2026-09-25 10:43:13","\u002F?page_id=17140","\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fgoogle-marketing-platform\u002F",{"ID":78,"id":78,"title":79,"filename":80,"filesize":81,"url":82,"link":83,"alt":45,"author":84,"description":45,"caption":45,"name":85,"status":86,"uploaded_to":51,"date":87,"modified":87,"menu_order":51,"mime_type":88,"type":89,"subtype":90,"icon":91,"width":92,"height":93,"sizes":94},25135,"Harry-Brace2","Harry-Brace2.png",306919,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90","\u002Fharry-brace2\u002F","12","harry-brace2","inherit","2023-10-03 16:03:03","image\u002Fpng","image","png","\u002Fwp\u002Fwp-includes\u002Fimages\u002Fmedia\u002Fdefault.png",696,600,{"thumbnail":95,"thumbnail-width":96,"thumbnail-height":96,"medium":97,"medium-width":98,"medium-height":99,"medium_large":100,"medium_large-width":101,"medium_large-height":102,"large":103,"large-width":104,"large-height":105,"1536x1536":106,"1536x1536-width":107,"1536x1536-height":108,"2048x2048":109,"2048x2048-width":110,"2048x2048-height":111,"post-thumbnail":112,"post-thumbnail-width":113,"post-thumbnail-height":114,"12_col":115,"12_col-width":116,"12_col-height":117,"default_landscape":118,"default_landscape-width":119,"default_landscape-height":93,"default_portrait":120,"default_portrait-width":93,"default_portrait-height":119,"6_col_and_margin_short":121,"6_col_and_margin_short-width":113,"6_col_and_margin_short-height":117,"11_col_and_margin":122,"11_col_and_margin-width":123,"11_col_and_margin-height":117,"9_col_rectangle":124,"9_col_rectangle-width":125,"9_col_rectangle-height":126,"11_col":127,"11_col-width":128,"11_col-height":117,"staff_image_696_600":129,"staff_image_696_600-width":92,"staff_image_696_600-height":93,"rectangular_thumbnail":130,"rectangular_thumbnail-width":131,"rectangular_thumbnail-height":132},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640","640","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=172&q=90&w=200",200,172,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=662&q=90&w=768",768,662,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1000&q=90&w=1892","1892","1000","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=1324&q=90&w=1536",1536,1324,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=1766&q=90&w=2048",2048,1766,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1180&q=90&w=1860",1860,1180,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=2880",2880,870,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=600&q=90&w=800",800,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=800&q=90&w=600","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=1860","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=3080",3080,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1400&q=90&w=2150",2150,1400,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=2640",2640,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=600&q=90&w=696","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=300&q=90&w=750",750,300,{"acf_fc_layout":134,"reduced":27,"top_overlap":135,"bottom_underlap":135,"disable_observer":-1,"heading":136,"cta_text":137,"cta_link":138,"items":139},"related_module","small","See more posts","See all articles","\u002Fblog\u002F",[140,154,164],{"type_key":16,"title":141,"excerpt":142,"to":143,"postedAt":144,"readingTime":145,"image":146,"authors":147,"category":151},"Beyond ad-level data: Unlocking granular product insights for Meta","\u003Cp>Standard Meta Ads reporting traditionally stops at the ad level, leaving e-commerce brands in the dark about which specific products are actually driving traffic on social platforms. While Dynamic Product Ads (DPAs) are incredibly powerful, they aggregate performance across multiple items, making it difficult to isolate individual product success.  To bridge this data gap, the […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Funlocking-granular-product-insights-for-meta\u002F","2026-06-24T14:13:48",4,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F06\u002Fallison-saeng-B7VlWt3pRM0-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[148],{"name":149,"image":150},"Zoe Le","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F08\u002FZoe-Le-NEW.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"to":152,"name":153},"\u002Fblog\u002Fcategory\u002Fmeasurement\u002F","Measurement",{"type_key":16,"title":155,"excerpt":156,"to":157,"postedAt":158,"readingTime":159,"image":160,"authors":161,"category":163},"Which Marketing Mix Modelling platform should you use?","\u003Cp>If you’ve decided to build a Marketing Mix Model (MMM), an important first step is to choose what platform you want to use. There are quite a few options, ranging from simple to complex, with different benefits to each You’ve probably come across these libraries already: Google’s Meridian, Meta’s Robyn, PyMC Marketing and a handful […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Fwhich-marketing-mix-modelling-platform-should-you-use\u002F","2026-06-10T11:28:01",6,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F06\u002Fvaleria-nikitina-ie2R2t9fC9Q-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[162],{"name":33,"image":36},{"to":152,"name":153},{"type_key":16,"title":165,"excerpt":166,"to":167,"postedAt":168,"readingTime":169,"image":170,"authors":171,"category":178},"Beyond the click: Can you use MMM to prove the value of LLMs?","\u003Cp>LLMs (Large Language Models) have quickly become a significant influence on a customer’s journey, and all signs point to this influence only increasing. Even before we consider how to influence visibility across AI search, the first question we have to ask ourselves is: How do we measure the impact LLMs have on top-line results? The […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Fcan-mmm-prove-the-value-of-lmms\u002F","2026-04-28T11:48:18",8,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F04\u002Faerps-com-bUUrG6CMHiA-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[172,175],{"name":173,"image":174},"Alex Howat","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2021\u002F06\u002FkMgPqCLz-Alex-Howat.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"name":176,"image":177},"Petar Jovetic","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F08\u002FPete-Jovetic-NEW.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"to":152,"name":153},{"type":180,"style":181,"heading":28,"date":4,"updatedAt":182,"reading_minutes":183,"image":184,"imageAlt":28,"categories":185,"collections":367},"blog-post","light","2026-03-18T15:19:38",3,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F03\u002Fubaid-e-alyafizi-A0tB3FNyjK8-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1180&q=90&w=1860",[186],{"id":10,"count":187,"description":188,"link":152,"name":153,"slug":189,"taxonomy":190,"parent":51,"meta":191,"acf":192,"head_links":193,"resource_count":194,"yoast_title":195,"yoast_meta":196,"yoast_json_ld":241,"_links":339,"path":152},129,"Here at Impression, ongoing research and training is a huge part of how we keep our \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002F\">Media Solutions\u003C\u002Fa> team up-to-date with the latest happenings in the world of web & app analytics, martech, \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fdata-science\u002F\">data science\u003C\u002Fa> and \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fmedia-effectiveness\u002F\">media effectiveness\u003C\u002Fa>. We regularly share our thoughts on the latest digital news right here on our blog, so you can keep up to date too.\r\n\r\nFind out more about our \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fanalytics\u002F\">Analytics Agency\u003C\u002Fa> services, or browse our latest tips, advice and opinions below.","measurement","category",[],{"sub_title_override":45,"title_override":45},[],21,"Online Measurement, Analytics & Effectiveness Blog | Impression",[197,199,202,205,208,211,214,216,218,220,223,226,229,232,235,238],{"property":198,"content":195},"title",{"property":200,"content":201},"description","Keeping up to date with the latest measurement and analytics trends and strategies can be difficult. 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