[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"cms-page:\u002Fblog\u002Fthe-baseline-in-marketing-mix-modelling":3},{"date":4,"date_gmt":4,"content":5,"sticky":7,"format":8,"categories":9,"collections":11,"coauthors":12,"class_list":14,"acf":23,"head_links":368,"breadcrumbs":369,"reading_minutes":183,"category":377,"head":379},"2025-12-11T09:22:44",{"rendered":6},"\n\u003Cp>When presenting results of a Marketing Mix Model (MMM), the go-to graph to display is a waterfall chart, representing the contributions from all media channels. However, there is always the question. What is the baseline?\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Firstly, a quick recap on MMM. Marketing Mix Modelling is a statistical technique that measures the impact of marketing activities. Simply put, the equation looks like this:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\u003Cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003Cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"991\" height=\"97\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2025\u002F12\u002Fbaseline-mmm-components.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36715\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\n\n\u003Cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003Cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"988\" height=\"589\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2025\u002F12\u002Fbaseline-mmm-waterfall-graph.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-36717\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\n\n\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Paid Media\u003C\u002Fstrong> (i.e. Google Ads, Display & Video, Paid Social), \u003Cstrong>Organic Media\u003C\u002Fstrong> (i.e. SEO, Digital PR, Organic Social) and \u003Cstrong>Controls\u003C\u002Fstrong> (i.e. potential non-marketing factors, such as seasonality, and macroeconomic factors) all make sense to stakeholders as an input into MMM. However, the \u003Cstrong>Baseline\u003C\u002Fstrong> is the input that often needs an explanation.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-does-a-baseline-in-an-mmm-represent\">\u003Cstrong>What does a baseline in an MMM represent?\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The \u003Cstrong>Baseline\u003C\u002Fstrong> in MMM represents the sales for the business that would happen if all marketing efforts stopped and all organic activity ceased. If this happened, we would still expect sales for the business. This is due to:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Brand loyalty & reputation:\u003C\u002Fstrong> The cumulative effect of brand building over previous years.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Customer retention:\u003C\u002Fstrong> Repeat purchases from your existing customer base that happen without a marketing nudge.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Word of mouth:\u003C\u002Fstrong> Organic recommendations that aren’t tied to a specific recent campaign.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Put simply, it is the revenue the business captures solely through its presence in the market, rather than its recent marketing activity.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-level-of-baseline-is-normal\">\u003Cstrong>What level of baseline is normal?\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>This is a common question from stakeholders. There is no specific answer to this, but based on the type of business and its market share, we can give a rough guide.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"high-baseline\">\u003Cstrong>High baseline\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>Established household goods, utilities, and mature subscription services where sales are driven mainly by habit, contracts, or being available in every store.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"medium-baseline\">\u003Cstrong>Medium baseline\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>Retail stores, car manufacturers, and fast food businesses are examples where people are familiar with the brand, but advertising is needed to prompt a purchase.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"low-baseline\">\u003Cstrong>Low baseline\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>New online-only brands and mobile apps, where few people know the product, so revenue naturally relies almost entirely on paid advertisements to find customers.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"is-a-high-baseline-bad\">\u003Cstrong>Is a high baseline bad?\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Again, this question has differing answers depending on the context. Many stakeholders will see a high baseline and think their marketing activity is not performing well, but this isn’t always the case. There can be many reasons for a high baseline.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"low-marketing-spend\">\u003Cstrong>Low marketing spend\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>If marketing spend is already low, we cannot expect paid media to be a large contributor to sales\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"low-variance-in-spend\">\u003Cstrong>Low variance in spend\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>When a channel has a consistent spend, it’s hard for the model to notice a relationship between it and revenue, and it will therefore under-contribute.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\n\n\n\u003Cli>This leads to the baseline being falsely inflated, explaining the gap that this phenomenon creates.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"high-brand-equity\">\u003Cstrong>High Brand Equity\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n\u003Cli>Most of the sales for the business come because the brand is well established, and all marketing efforts are just to convert those final few who might be on the fence.\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The baseline isn’t just a number that fills in the gap; it represents the success of brand building and reputation. Without it, you risk overcrediting your channels using sales that would have happened anyway.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fmeasurement\u002F\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3840\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2024\u002F03\u002FMeasurement_Banner_01.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27690\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n",false,"standard",[10],41,[],[13],120,[15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22],"post-36710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-measurement",{"page_content_modules":24,"hero":179},[25,133],{"acf_fc_layout":26,"reduced":27,"top_overlap":-1,"bottom_underlap":-1,"disable_observer":27,"title":28,"content":6,"authors":29},"blog_post_content",true,"The baseline in Marketing Mix Modelling",[30],{"id":31,"path":32,"display_name":33,"job_title":34,"description":35,"avatar_url":36,"acf":37},29,"\u002Fabout\u002Four-team\u002Fharry-brace\u002F","Harry Brace","Director, Head of Solutions","I'm the Director, Head of Solutions at Impression. I spend my time debugging and implementing tracking using Google Tag Manager, managing data warehousing platforms and building Looker Studio reports!","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"full_bio":38,"job_title":34,"specialist_service_links":39,"photo":77},"\u003Cp>Director, Head of Solutions. Joined Impression in November 2017.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>I gained 4 years of experience as a web developer before moving to Impression as a digital account manager in 2017. I moved across to the Analytics department in 2019 and I’ve been strengthening and growing our Analytics offering ever since.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Day to day, I spend my time debugging and implementing tracking using Google Tag Manager, managing data warehousing platforms and building Looker Studio reports!\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Something that I’m proud of:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\nBuilding the analytics department over the last couple of years with the help of Aaron and now Alex H.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Outside of work:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\nFind me socialising, skiing or gaming.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[40,58,68],{"page":41,"link_text":57},{"ID":42,"post_author":43,"post_date":44,"post_date_gmt":44,"post_content":45,"post_title":46,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":49,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":50,"post_modified_gmt":50,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":51,"guid":52,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":56},374,"98","2021-01-11 16:25:32","","Analytics","publish","closed","analytics","2026-08-25 10:02:52",0,"\u002F?page_id=374","page","0","raw","\u002Fanalytics\u002F","Web Analytics",{"page":59,"link_text":62},{"ID":60,"post_author":43,"post_date":61,"post_date_gmt":61,"post_content":45,"post_title":62,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":63,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":64,"post_modified_gmt":64,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":65,"guid":66,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":67},17916,"2022-06-20 08:56:55","Tag Management","tag-management","2025-03-13 14:59:15",17552,"\u002F?page_id=17916","\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Ftag-management\u002F",{"page":69,"link_text":72},{"ID":70,"post_author":43,"post_date":71,"post_date_gmt":71,"post_content":45,"post_title":72,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":73,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":74,"post_modified_gmt":74,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":65,"guid":75,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":76},17140,"2022-05-27 14:22:19","Google Marketing Platform","google-marketing-platform","2026-08-25 10:20:51","\u002F?page_id=17140","\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fgoogle-marketing-platform\u002F",{"ID":78,"id":78,"title":79,"filename":80,"filesize":81,"url":82,"link":83,"alt":45,"author":84,"description":45,"caption":45,"name":85,"status":86,"uploaded_to":51,"date":87,"modified":87,"menu_order":51,"mime_type":88,"type":89,"subtype":90,"icon":91,"width":92,"height":93,"sizes":94},25135,"Harry-Brace2","Harry-Brace2.png",306919,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90","\u002Fharry-brace2\u002F","12","harry-brace2","inherit","2023-10-03 16:03:03","image\u002Fpng","image","png","\u002Fwp\u002Fwp-includes\u002Fimages\u002Fmedia\u002Fdefault.png",696,600,{"thumbnail":95,"thumbnail-width":96,"thumbnail-height":96,"medium":97,"medium-width":98,"medium-height":99,"medium_large":100,"medium_large-width":101,"medium_large-height":102,"large":103,"large-width":104,"large-height":105,"1536x1536":106,"1536x1536-width":107,"1536x1536-height":108,"2048x2048":109,"2048x2048-width":110,"2048x2048-height":111,"post-thumbnail":112,"post-thumbnail-width":113,"post-thumbnail-height":114,"12_col":115,"12_col-width":116,"12_col-height":117,"default_landscape":118,"default_landscape-width":119,"default_landscape-height":93,"default_portrait":120,"default_portrait-width":93,"default_portrait-height":119,"6_col_and_margin_short":121,"6_col_and_margin_short-width":113,"6_col_and_margin_short-height":117,"11_col_and_margin":122,"11_col_and_margin-width":123,"11_col_and_margin-height":117,"9_col_rectangle":124,"9_col_rectangle-width":125,"9_col_rectangle-height":126,"11_col":127,"11_col-width":128,"11_col-height":117,"staff_image_696_600":129,"staff_image_696_600-width":92,"staff_image_696_600-height":93,"rectangular_thumbnail":130,"rectangular_thumbnail-width":131,"rectangular_thumbnail-height":132},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640","640","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=172&q=90&w=200",200,172,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=662&q=90&w=768",768,662,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1000&q=90&w=1892","1892","1000","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=1324&q=90&w=1536",1536,1324,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=1766&q=90&w=2048",2048,1766,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1180&q=90&w=1860",1860,1180,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=2880",2880,870,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=600&q=90&w=800",800,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=800&q=90&w=600","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=1860","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=3080",3080,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1400&q=90&w=2150",2150,1400,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=2640",2640,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=600&q=90&w=696","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=300&q=90&w=750",750,300,{"acf_fc_layout":134,"reduced":27,"top_overlap":135,"bottom_underlap":135,"disable_observer":-1,"heading":136,"cta_text":137,"cta_link":138,"items":139},"related_module","small","See more posts","See all articles","\u002Fblog\u002F",[140,154,164],{"type_key":16,"title":141,"excerpt":142,"to":143,"postedAt":144,"readingTime":145,"image":146,"authors":147,"category":151},"Beyond ad-level data: Unlocking granular product insights for Meta","\u003Cp>Standard Meta Ads reporting traditionally stops at the ad level, leaving e-commerce brands in the dark about which specific products are actually driving traffic on social platforms. While Dynamic Product Ads (DPAs) are incredibly powerful, they aggregate performance across multiple items, making it difficult to isolate individual product success.  To bridge this data gap, the […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Funlocking-granular-product-insights-for-meta\u002F","2026-06-24T14:13:48",4,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F06\u002Fallison-saeng-B7VlWt3pRM0-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[148],{"name":149,"image":150},"Zoe Le","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F08\u002FZoe-Le-NEW.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"to":152,"name":153},"\u002Fblog\u002Fcategory\u002Fmeasurement\u002F","Measurement",{"type_key":16,"title":155,"excerpt":156,"to":157,"postedAt":158,"readingTime":159,"image":160,"authors":161,"category":163},"Which Marketing Mix Modelling platform should you use?","\u003Cp>If you’ve decided to build a Marketing Mix Model (MMM), an important first step is to choose what platform you want to use. There are quite a few options, ranging from simple to complex, with different benefits to each You’ve probably come across these libraries already: Google’s Meridian, Meta’s Robyn, PyMC Marketing and a handful […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Fwhich-marketing-mix-modelling-platform-should-you-use\u002F","2026-06-10T11:28:01",6,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F06\u002Fvaleria-nikitina-ie2R2t9fC9Q-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[162],{"name":33,"image":36},{"to":152,"name":153},{"type_key":16,"title":165,"excerpt":166,"to":167,"postedAt":168,"readingTime":169,"image":170,"authors":171,"category":178},"Beyond the click: Can you use MMM to prove the value of LLMs?","\u003Cp>LLMs (Large Language Models) have quickly become a significant influence on a customer’s journey, and all signs point to this influence only increasing. Even before we consider how to influence visibility across AI search, the first question we have to ask ourselves is: How do we measure the impact LLMs have on top-line results? The […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Fcan-mmm-prove-the-value-of-lmms\u002F","2026-04-28T11:48:18",8,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F04\u002Faerps-com-bUUrG6CMHiA-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[172,175],{"name":173,"image":174},"Alex Howat","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2021\u002F06\u002FkMgPqCLz-Alex-Howat.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"name":176,"image":177},"Petar Jovetic","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F08\u002FPete-Jovetic-NEW.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"to":152,"name":153},{"type":180,"style":181,"heading":28,"date":4,"updatedAt":182,"reading_minutes":183,"image":184,"imageAlt":28,"categories":185,"collections":367},"blog-post","light","2025-12-11T09:22:45",3,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2025\u002F12\u002Firham-setyaki-tfdff8Poebw-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1180&q=90&w=1860",[186],{"id":10,"count":187,"description":188,"link":152,"name":153,"slug":189,"taxonomy":190,"parent":51,"meta":191,"acf":192,"head_links":193,"resource_count":194,"yoast_title":195,"yoast_meta":196,"yoast_json_ld":241,"_links":339,"path":152},129,"Here at Impression, ongoing research and training is a huge part of how we keep our \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002F\">Media Solutions\u003C\u002Fa> team up-to-date with the latest happenings in the world of web & app analytics, martech, \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fdata-science\u002F\">data science\u003C\u002Fa> and \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fmedia-effectiveness\u002F\">media effectiveness\u003C\u002Fa>. We regularly share our thoughts on the latest digital news right here on our blog, so you can keep up to date too.\r\n\r\nFind out more about our \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fanalytics\u002F\">Analytics Agency\u003C\u002Fa> services, or browse our latest tips, advice and opinions below.","measurement","category",[],{"sub_title_override":45,"title_override":45},[],21,"Online Measurement, Analytics & Effectiveness Blog | Impression",[197,199,202,205,208,211,214,216,218,220,223,226,229,232,235,238],{"property":198,"content":195},"title",{"property":200,"content":201},"description","Keeping up to date with the latest measurement and analytics trends and strategies can be difficult. 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