[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"cms-page:\u002Fblog\u002Fadstock-effect":3},{"date":4,"date_gmt":4,"content":5,"sticky":7,"format":8,"categories":9,"collections":11,"coauthors":12,"class_list":14,"acf":23,"head_links":368,"breadcrumbs":369,"reading_minutes":183,"category":377,"head":379},"2025-07-21T14:56:55",{"rendered":6},"\n\u003Cp>One of the most overlooked phenomena in marketing is the adstock effect. The adstock effect describes the lingering or delayed impacts of advertising, where marketing efforts hold “stock” in the mind of consumers for weeks on end. Neglecting this dynamic could lead to potentially halting campaigns which are in fact leaving a lasting effect on the consumer, forfeiting long-term incremental gains.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>For example, the impact of a TV advert is likely to have a lasting influence weeks after it is shown, however a \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fpaid-media\u002Fppc\u002Fgoogle-ads-management\u002F\">Google Search ad\u003C\u002Fa> is likely to be forgotten about soon after it is seen, therefore having less of a long term effect.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-exactly-is-the-adstock-effect\">\u003Cstrong>What exactly is the Adstock Effect?\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>At its core, the adstock is just a transformation based on a decay model. The transformation captures how much of an advertising campaign’s impact persists from one week to the next. The most critical variable is the decay rate, which determines the speed of the decline. A high decay rate means the effect lasts longer, while a low decay rate indicates a quick drop-off.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The graph below titled “Geometric Adstock Effect” illustrates the most common concept of adstock. The \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.pymc-marketing.io\u002Fen\u002Fstable\u002Fapi\u002Fgenerated\u002Fpymc_marketing.mmm.components.adstock.GeometricAdstock.html#pymc_marketing.mmm.components.adstock.GeometricAdstock\">Geometric Adstock\u003C\u002Fa> assumes a constant decay of the spend\u002Fimpressions over time. In this example, with a single £1,000 spend in the first week, the adstock value immediately peaks at £1,000. Since, in this case, there is no new spend in subsequent weeks, the graph is a pure decay curve. The ad’s effect diminishes at a fixed rate each week, representing the carryover. This illustrates the long-lasting but gradually fading impact of a single advertising campaign. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Limits are set on adstock, otherwise the effect would carry on forever. This limit can vary depending on the type of business, but a recommended limit is around 12 weeks.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\u003Cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003Cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1189\" height=\"690\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2025\u002F07\u002Fgeometric-adstock-effect.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33980\" style=\"width:743px;height:auto\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\n\n\n\u003Cp>In this example, α is set at 0.7, meaning the adstock the following week is 70% of the adstock the week before. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The formula for the geometric adstock effect is given here:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\u003Cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003Cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"291\" height=\"49\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2025\u002F07\u002Fgeometric-adstock-formula.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33979\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\n\n\n\u003Cp>Where A\u003Csub>t\u003C\u002Fsub> is the Adstock in week t, X\u003Csub>t\u003C\u002Fsub> is the ad spend\u002Fsessions on week t, and ɑ is the decay rate, and is between 0 and 1. A\u003Csub>0 \u003C\u002Fsub>= X\u003Csub>0 \u003C\u002Fsub>in all cases, meaning the adstock of the initial week is equal to the spend\u002Fsessions in the initial week. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>A\u003Csub>t  \u003C\u002Fsub>is essentially the “effective spend” on week t (in the context of ad spend). In other words, the adstock in a particular week is equal to the spend that week plus the adstock from the previous week multiplied by the decay rate. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The geometric adstock is the most widely used adstock transformation, because it assumes that the peak of its effectiveness comes at the point of exposure to marketing activity. In some cases, it is unwise to model the effect like this (this is discussed later).\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>For \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fblog\u002Fmedia-mix-modelling\u002F\">Marketing Mix Modelling\u003C\u002Fa> (MMM), the adstock transform is vital. It estimates the true, lasting impact of advertising per channel. This is particularly important because MMM is typically conducted with weekly data, meaning a significant portion of advertising’s incremental revenue is observed in the subsequent weeks. A high decay rate (close to 1) means the campaign continues to be effective for a long period of time, maximising the incremental impact. The decay rate is influenced by multiple different factors.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"influencing-adstock\">\u003Cstrong>Influencing Adstock\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>The impact of advertising is never uniform. The adstock effect can differ considerably in both its duration and intensity, for several reasons:\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"creative-quality-memorability\">\u003Cstrong>Creative Quality & Memorability\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Highly creative, emotionally resonant, or distinctive advertising tends to stick in consumers’ minds longer, resulting in a slower decay rate and a more enduring adstock. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"brand-category-product-type\">\u003Cstrong>Brand Category & Product Type\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Fast-moving consumer goods might have a different adstock half-life compared to high-consideration purchases like cars or enterprise software. For high-consideration purchases, the peak of sales may well come weeks after the customer sees the advert. In these cases, the graph of the adstock effect looks slightly different, as seen below in the graph titled “Delayed Adstock Effect”. In the \u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.pymc-marketing.io\u002Fen\u002Fstable\u002Fapi\u002Fgenerated\u002Fpymc_marketing.mmm.components.adstock.DelayedAdstock.html\">Delayed Adstock Effect\u003C\u002Fa>, the effective spend actually increases for the first couple of weeks before it starts to lose its effectiveness. Think about the purchase of a car, this is never an impulse buy, the purchase length for this can take months to consider.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\u003Cdiv class=\"wp-block-image\">\n\u003Cfigure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1189\" height=\"690\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2025\u002F07\u002Fdelayed-adstock-effect.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33981\" style=\"width:628px;height:auto\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fdiv>\n\n\n\u003Cp>In this example, α is set to 0.7, and the delay of the peak of sales is set at 2 weeks, hence the peak of sales coming in week 2.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"competitor-marketing-efforts\">\u003Cstrong>Competitor Marketing Efforts\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>In a crowded market with constant messaging from competitors, you might find your ad struggling to make an impact on users, leading to a quicker adstock decay due to the sheer volume of noise.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"measuring-adstock\">\u003Cstrong>Measuring Adstock\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>In the world of marketing measurement, factoring in the ad stock effect is crucial. When overlooked, the mistake of misattributing revenue is a distinct possibility, leading to premature budget cuts and inaccurate ROAS calculations.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"marketing-mix-modelling\">\u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fblog\u002Fmodern-measurement-series-6-a-deeper-dive-into-media-mix-modelling\u002F\">\u003Cstrong>Marketing Mix Modelling\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>This remains the primary framework for estimating adstock effects. By analysing historical sales and media data, pricing, promotions, and external market factors, MMM can statistically estimate the decay rate of your advertising. The output provides invaluable insights into the long-term, incremental impact of each channel and informs optimal budget allocation. \u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Ch3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"incrementality-testing\">\u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fblog\u002Fincrementality-testing\u002F\">\u003Cstrong>Incrementality Testing\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh3>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>This shows the ad stock effect directly when starting to run a new campaign. Just isolate ads from one region of a country, and by using a synthetic control to predict what would have happened, we can measure the impact of the campaign. The adstock effect is visible in the first few weeks after the campaign starts, as the uplift between the true revenue and the counterfactual increases week on week, and then visible after a test finishes as the effect of advertising wears off.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cp>Now that we have quantified the effect of adstock, this leads to more precise budget allocation and a clearer understanding of true marketing ROAS. This knowledge also facilitates more effective campaign planning and forecasting, allowing for better timing of investments around key sales periods. Ultimately, these insights allow you to optimise your marketing mix, leading to incremental sales and revenue.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\n\n\n\u003Cfigure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\u003Ca rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fmeasurement\u002F\">\u003Cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"3840\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2024\u002F03\u002FMeasurement_Banner_01.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27690\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n",false,"standard",[10],41,[],[13],120,[15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22],"post-33970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-measurement",{"page_content_modules":24,"hero":179},[25,133],{"acf_fc_layout":26,"reduced":27,"top_overlap":-1,"bottom_underlap":-1,"disable_observer":27,"title":28,"content":6,"authors":29},"blog_post_content",true,"“Adstock” and the Long and Short of Advertising",[30],{"id":31,"path":32,"display_name":33,"job_title":34,"description":35,"avatar_url":36,"acf":37},29,"\u002Fabout\u002Four-team\u002Fharry-brace\u002F","Harry Brace","Director, Head of Solutions","I'm the Director, Head of Solutions at Impression. I spend my time debugging and implementing tracking using Google Tag Manager, managing data warehousing platforms and building Looker Studio reports!","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"full_bio":38,"job_title":34,"specialist_service_links":39,"photo":77},"\u003Cp>Director, Head of Solutions. Joined Impression in November 2017.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>I gained 4 years of experience as a web developer before moving to Impression as a digital account manager in 2017. I moved across to the Analytics department in 2019 and I’ve been strengthening and growing our Analytics offering ever since.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Day to day, I spend my time debugging and implementing tracking using Google Tag Manager, managing data warehousing platforms and building Looker Studio reports!\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Something that I’m proud of:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\nBuilding the analytics department over the last couple of years with the help of Aaron and now Alex H.\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>Outside of work:\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cbr \u002F>\nFind me socialising, skiing or gaming.\u003C\u002Fp>\n",[40,58,68],{"page":41,"link_text":57},{"ID":42,"post_author":43,"post_date":44,"post_date_gmt":44,"post_content":45,"post_title":46,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":49,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":50,"post_modified_gmt":50,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":51,"guid":52,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":56},374,"98","2021-01-11 16:25:32","","Analytics","publish","closed","analytics","2026-09-28 11:36:16",0,"\u002F?page_id=374","page","0","raw","\u002Fanalytics\u002F","Web Analytics",{"page":59,"link_text":62},{"ID":60,"post_author":43,"post_date":61,"post_date_gmt":61,"post_content":45,"post_title":62,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":63,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":64,"post_modified_gmt":64,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":65,"guid":66,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":67},17916,"2022-06-20 08:56:55","Tag Management","tag-management","2026-09-28 11:05:27",17552,"\u002F?page_id=17916","\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Ftag-management\u002F",{"page":69,"link_text":72},{"ID":70,"post_author":43,"post_date":71,"post_date_gmt":71,"post_content":45,"post_title":72,"post_excerpt":45,"post_status":47,"comment_status":48,"ping_status":48,"post_password":45,"post_name":73,"to_ping":45,"pinged":45,"post_modified":74,"post_modified_gmt":74,"post_content_filtered":45,"post_parent":65,"guid":75,"menu_order":51,"post_type":53,"post_mime_type":45,"comment_count":54,"filter":55,"url_path":76},17140,"2022-05-27 14:22:19","Google Marketing Platform","google-marketing-platform","2026-09-25 10:43:13","\u002F?page_id=17140","\u002Fmedia-solutions\u002Fgoogle-marketing-platform\u002F",{"ID":78,"id":78,"title":79,"filename":80,"filesize":81,"url":82,"link":83,"alt":45,"author":84,"description":45,"caption":45,"name":85,"status":86,"uploaded_to":51,"date":87,"modified":87,"menu_order":51,"mime_type":88,"type":89,"subtype":90,"icon":91,"width":92,"height":93,"sizes":94},25135,"Harry-Brace2","Harry-Brace2.png",306919,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&q=90","\u002Fharry-brace2\u002F","12","harry-brace2","inherit","2023-10-03 16:03:03","image\u002Fpng","image","png","\u002Fwp\u002Fwp-includes\u002Fimages\u002Fmedia\u002Fdefault.png",696,600,{"thumbnail":95,"thumbnail-width":96,"thumbnail-height":96,"medium":97,"medium-width":98,"medium-height":99,"medium_large":100,"medium_large-width":101,"medium_large-height":102,"large":103,"large-width":104,"large-height":105,"1536x1536":106,"1536x1536-width":107,"1536x1536-height":108,"2048x2048":109,"2048x2048-width":110,"2048x2048-height":111,"post-thumbnail":112,"post-thumbnail-width":113,"post-thumbnail-height":114,"12_col":115,"12_col-width":116,"12_col-height":117,"default_landscape":118,"default_landscape-width":119,"default_landscape-height":93,"default_portrait":120,"default_portrait-width":93,"default_portrait-height":119,"6_col_and_margin_short":121,"6_col_and_margin_short-width":113,"6_col_and_margin_short-height":117,"11_col_and_margin":122,"11_col_and_margin-width":123,"11_col_and_margin-height":117,"9_col_rectangle":124,"9_col_rectangle-width":125,"9_col_rectangle-height":126,"11_col":127,"11_col-width":128,"11_col-height":117,"staff_image_696_600":129,"staff_image_696_600-width":92,"staff_image_696_600-height":93,"rectangular_thumbnail":130,"rectangular_thumbnail-width":131,"rectangular_thumbnail-height":132},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640","640","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=172&q=90&w=200",200,172,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=662&q=90&w=768",768,662,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1000&q=90&w=1892","1892","1000","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=1324&q=90&w=1536",1536,1324,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=scale&h=1766&q=90&w=2048",2048,1766,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1180&q=90&w=1860",1860,1180,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=2880",2880,870,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=600&q=90&w=800",800,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=800&q=90&w=600","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=1860","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=3080",3080,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=1400&q=90&w=2150",2150,1400,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=870&q=90&w=2640",2640,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=600&q=90&w=696","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F10\u002FHarry-Brace2.png?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=300&q=90&w=750",750,300,{"acf_fc_layout":134,"reduced":27,"top_overlap":135,"bottom_underlap":135,"disable_observer":-1,"heading":136,"cta_text":137,"cta_link":138,"items":139},"related_module","small","See more posts","See all articles","\u002Fblog\u002F",[140,154,164],{"type_key":16,"title":141,"excerpt":142,"to":143,"postedAt":144,"readingTime":145,"image":146,"authors":147,"category":151},"Beyond ad-level data: Unlocking granular product insights for Meta","\u003Cp>Standard Meta Ads reporting traditionally stops at the ad level, leaving e-commerce brands in the dark about which specific products are actually driving traffic on social platforms. While Dynamic Product Ads (DPAs) are incredibly powerful, they aggregate performance across multiple items, making it difficult to isolate individual product success.  To bridge this data gap, the […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Funlocking-granular-product-insights-for-meta\u002F","2026-06-24T14:13:48",4,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F06\u002Fallison-saeng-B7VlWt3pRM0-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[148],{"name":149,"image":150},"Zoe Le","https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2023\u002F08\u002FZoe-Le-NEW.png?auto=compress&fit=crop&fm=jpg&h=150&q=80&w=150&bg=CFE6F9",{"to":152,"name":153},"\u002Fblog\u002Fcategory\u002Fmeasurement\u002F","Measurement",{"type_key":16,"title":155,"excerpt":156,"to":157,"postedAt":158,"readingTime":159,"image":160,"authors":161,"category":163},"Which Marketing Mix Modelling platform should you use?","\u003Cp>If you’ve decided to build a Marketing Mix Model (MMM), an important first step is to choose what platform you want to use. There are quite a few options, ranging from simple to complex, with different benefits to each You’ve probably come across these libraries already: Google’s Meridian, Meta’s Robyn, PyMC Marketing and a handful […]\u003C\u002Fp>\n","\u002Fblog\u002Fwhich-marketing-mix-modelling-platform-should-you-use\u002F","2026-06-10T11:28:01",6,"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.impression.co.uk\u002F2026\u002F06\u002Fvaleria-nikitina-ie2R2t9fC9Q-unsplash.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&fit=crop&h=640&q=90&w=640",[162],{"name":33,"image":36},{"to":152,"name":153},{"type_key":16,"title":165,"excerpt":166,"to":167,"postedAt":168,"readingTime":169,"image":170,"authors":171,"category":178},"Beyond the click: Can you use MMM to prove the value of LLMs?","\u003Cp>LLMs (Large Language Models) have quickly become a significant influence on a customer’s journey, and all signs point to this influence only increasing. Even before we consider how to influence visibility across AI search, the first question we have to ask ourselves is: How do we measure the impact LLMs have on top-line results? 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